Reporting on what moved the odds on Texas questions and why: a poll, a filing, a game with something riding on it, each story dated and tied to the contract it tests.
Dallas is 1-1 with safeties Malik Hooker doubtful and P.J. Locke out for the September 27, 2026 game in Rio de Janeiro, and Kalshi's 50% playoff price as of September 23 means the market has not picked a side on the season yet.
Texas Predictions staff ·
Marist's registered-voter survey of September 23, 2026 has Hinojosa 49% to Abbott 46%, but Kalshi prices a Republican winner at 73%, because two likely-voter polls the same week had Abbott ahead and 68% of Marist's own respondents expect him to win.
Marist has Talarico up six, Texas Southern up one and NBC5 up three, and as of September 23, 2026 the exchanges price the Democratic contract at 59% and 63%, because a lead that small in every poll buys the direction, not the margin.
Houston and Texas are level at 78-79 with five games left, yet Kalshi and Polymarket price the Astros near 68% and the Rangers near 34% as of September 23, 2026, because the 9-4 season series means a tie is a Houston title.
Texas and Houston are both 78-79 with five games left and Houston took the season series 9-4, which means the Rangers must finish ahead outright, starting with a coin-flip game against the Mets in Arlington on September 23, 2026.
5 stories, the whole archive, newest first · a story runs here because something happened on a dated Texas record, not because a price moved
Every story here starts with something that happened on a date and can be checked, and reports what a Texas contract did with it. A game gets a preview only when something rides on it: the Rangers hosting the Mets on September 23, 2026 level with the Astros for the division lead, or the Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro on September 27 with two safeties hurt and a playoff contract priced as a coin flip. A poll is a story when the market's answer is the point: a Marist survey put Gina Hinojosa ahead of Greg Abbott and the governor contract treated it as one poll among three, and three Senate polls in three days agreed on a direction that the exchanges priced without pricing its size. An analysis shows the working behind a price: why a level division is a Houston title comes down to a 9-4 season series and a tiebreak rule. Nothing runs because a day was quiet, and no routine game is written up.
The election calendar belongs to the Texas Secretary of State: voter registration ends on October 5, 2026, early voting runs from October 19 to October 30, and the general election falls on November 3, when the Senate, governor and House contracts settle on the party of each winner under the exchanges' rules. Until then the catalysts are polls with a published method, such as Marist's registered-voter survey of September 17 to 20, 2026, debates agreed or declined, campaign filings, and a large trade on one exchange that the other does not follow. In sports the stories track the standings: the Astros and Rangers took a level division into the last week of a season that ends on September 27, 2026, the Cowboys and Texans meet in Houston on October 4, and the NFL regular season runs to January 10, 2027. The legal file has its own dates: the Senate Committee on State Affairs was charged on March 27, 2026 with studying prediction markets and noticed a hearing for September 15, 2026, and a filing, order or venue notice naming Texas would be a story the day it appeared, then a line on the legal status page.
A poll says what a sample said; a price says what people risking money believe, and the two disagree often enough that the gap is the story. Each article carries the figure it was written on, with its date and the exchange it came from, while the contract's own page shows the live one. When the same question needs newer numbers, the existing article is updated and re-dated with a note of what changed; a new event gets a new article that links the old one. Where two exchanges price the contract a story names, both figures appear; where one does, the story says so. A story whose event has run its course is frozen and stays published as a record of what the market believed that day. Nothing here says which side to take; the sports section and the teams directory hold the clubs the stories follow.
A dated event with a public source that moves or tests the price of a Texas contract: a poll such as the Marist survey published on September 23, 2026, a court or regulator filing, a campaign development, or a game with a division, a playoff place or a season contract riding on it. A day on which nothing happened is not a story, and a routine game is not covered.
The 2026 races for Governor of Texas and the U.S. Senate seat, the House contests in the 15th and 32nd Districts, and the season contracts on the state's clubs: the American League West shared by the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, the Dallas Cowboys' playoff and NFC East lines, the 2027 NBA title board and the Big 12 championship.
The race contracts pay on the party of the winner of the November 3, 2026 general election under each exchange's rules, not on a named candidate whatever label sits beside the price. The division contracts settle on Major League Baseball's final standings, with a two-club tie decided by the head-to-head record, and the playoff contracts on the league's list of qualifiers.
Voter registration closes on October 5, 2026, early voting runs from October 19 to October 30, 2026, and the general election is on November 3, 2026, according to the Texas Secretary of State. The Senate, governor and House contracts on this site settle after that vote.
The legal status page reports the record, not a verdict: as of September 23, 2026 no Texas statute, order or court filing naming Kalshi or Polymarket had been located, and the Senate Committee on State Affairs was noticed to take testimony on the subject on September 15, 2026. It draws no conclusion, is next reviewed on October 7, 2026, and nothing here is legal advice.