Texas Elections Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
Texas 2026 elections as the prediction markets price them: a contract on each race on the ballot, from the Senate seat and the governor’s office to the House districts. When Texans vote is here too.
The ballot
7 races priced · the first 3 as cards, the rest as rows, in ballot orderPolitics, by volume →Texas Senate Odds 2026
Texas Governor Odds 2026
Texas 15th District Odds 2026
| Race | Quoted sides | Price | 24h | Other side | Volume | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. House 5 races priced · ballot order · one is a card above | ||||||
| Texas 21st District Odds 202621st District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Republican Party 94%No 7% | 94%-1567 | — | No 7%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $74Kno 24h volume served | No date servedvote |
| Texas 24th District Odds 202624th District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Republican Party 89%No 12% | 89%-809 | down 1 points over 24h | No 12%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $85K$109 24h | No date servedvote |
| Texas 28th District Odds 202628th District · 2 outcomes · Kalshi · 2 venues | Democratic Party 89%No 12% | 89%-809 | — | No 12%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $202K$3 24h | No date servedvote |
| Texas 32nd District Odds 202632nd District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Republican Party 87%No 13% | 87%-669 | down 1 points over 24h | No 13%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $69K$707 24h | No date servedvote |
Ballot order, not money order: statewide offices first, then the seats as the ballot lists them · each row shows both quoted sides — the second is its own quote, never 1 − price · vote dates come from each page’s settlement text
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Top Texas Election Markets
The ballot on this page is the November 3, 2026 general election as the exchanges price it: one contract per race, paying on the party of the winner, in ballot order rather than by money. The state’s Class 2 seat in the United States Senate comes first, then the office of Governor of Texas, which Greg Abbott has held since January 20, 2015, then the state’s districts in the United States House by number. Each row quotes both sides of its contract as the exchanges quote them, the price of a Democratic win beside the price of a Republican win, and opens the race’s own page: the Senate race, the governor’s race, the 15th District and the 32nd District among them. Nothing here is a projection.
What Moves Texas Election Markets
The Secretary of State’s calendar is the spine. Monday, October 5, 2026 is the last day to register to vote; early voting by personal appearance runs from Monday, October 19 to Friday, October 30; an application for a ballot by mail must be received by Friday, October 23; and a mail ballot must be back by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if it was postmarked by that hour. After October 5 the electorate is fixed, and through the early-voting window the turnout the state reports is the first hard number before the count.
The nominees were fixed by the March 3, 2026 primary and the May 26, 2026 runoff, and August 17, 2026 was the last day to declare a write-in candidacy for state office; a withdrawal after that carries the contract with the party rather than the person, which is why the rows here name parties. The House lines are new: 2026 is the first election under PlanC2333, the congressional plan the 89th Legislature enacted in its second called session, and the members elected under the previous plan serve until January 2027.
Why Texas Election Prediction Markets
A forecaster publishes a rating; a market publishes a price traders have paid, and that price reads as the probability the market implies, shown here as a percentage. The site keeps two exchanges’ prices apart when both list a race and names the one exchange when only one does. Settlement is fixed before anyone trades: the Senate contract settles once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have called the race for the same candidate, or on the certification if they split; Kalshi’s governor and House contracts wait for the inauguration or the oath of office in January 2027; Polymarket’s House contracts settle when the House races are called. Until then a lead is a price, not a result. The wider board, with its margin and turnout ladders, is on the politics page; what Texas law says about the exchanges is on the legal status page.
Questions readers ask
How do election prediction markets work?
Each race is a contract that pays if one party’s nominee wins and nothing otherwise, so the price traders pay for it, shown here as a percentage, is the probability they assign to that result. Kalshi and Polymarket list the Texas contracts; the site shows both exchanges’ prices when both carry a race and takes no trades itself.
Which Texas 2026 elections have prediction markets?
The November 3, 2026 races for the state’s Class 2 seat in the United States Senate, for Governor of Texas and for the state’s districts in the United States House each have a contract on the winning party, and the Senate race also has margin-of-victory and turnout ladders.
How do Texas election markets settle?
Each contract names its settlement source before anyone trades it. The Senate contract waits for the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC to call the race for the same candidate, or for the certification if they split; Kalshi’s governor and House contracts wait for the inauguration or the oath of office in January 2027, so an election-night projection settles nothing.
When can I vote in the Texas 2026 elections?
Early voting in person runs from Monday, October 19 to Friday, October 30, 2026, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026; the last day to register is October 5, 2026, and an application for a ballot by mail must be received by October 23, 2026, per the Texas Secretary of State.
Are election prediction markets legal in Texas?
That is answered on the site’s legal status page as of its stated review date, which sets out what Texas law, its regulators and its courts have said about each exchange and draws no conclusion where the record is silent. Nothing on this elections page is legal advice.