Texas Economy Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
Prediction markets on the Texas economy and its public finances: contracts that settle on a published Texas figure, from state revenue to the jobless rate. Statewide questions belong here; national numbers stay with Prediction Genius.
This board is empty because no exchange contract on a Texas economic figure has qualified for the site. The first one will settle on a published Texas figure, and its own page will say which figure, who publishes it and when it settles.
Reporting
3 stories · newest firstAll Texas news →- TXLocal newsLocal news
A Marist Poll Put Hinojosa Ahead of Abbott, and the Market Treats It as One Poll Among Three
Marist's registered-voter survey of September 23, 2026 has Hinojosa 49% to Abbott 46%, but Kalshi prices a Republican winner at 73%, because two likely-voter polls the same week had Abbott ahead and 68% of Marist's own respondents expect him to win.
- TXAnalysisAnalysis
Three Texas Senate Polls in Three Days Put Talarico Ahead, and the Market Prices the Lead but Not the Size
Marist has Talarico up six, Texas Southern up one and NBC5 up three, and as of September 23, 2026 the exchanges price the Democratic contract at 59% and 63%, because a lead that small in every poll buys the direction, not the margin.
- TXAnalysisAnalysis
The AL West Is Tied, and the Market Gives Houston Two-Thirds Because It Already Won the Season Series
Houston and Texas are level at 78-79 with five games left, yet Kalshi and Polymarket price the Astros near 68% and the Rangers near 34% as of September 23, 2026, because the 9-4 season series means a tie is a Houston title.
Top Texas Economy Markets
No contract on a Texas economic figure is priced on this site yet, so this section opens with its rule. A market belongs here when an exchange lists a contract that settles on a number a public body publishes about Texas, and Prediction Genius, which supplies the site's prices, places that contract in Texas rather than in a national category. The question has to be Texas's own: state tax revenue, the state budget, the unemployment rate for Texas, a Texas fuel average, or the finances of a Texas city or a state authority. A national release with no Texas line, and a question that reads the same in every state, stay with Prediction Genius. Until a qualifying contract is listed, the Texas questions priced on this site are political: the markets catalogue lists them and the politics section follows the races.
What Moves Texas Economy Markets
The figures such contracts settle on already arrive on a calendar, and the calendar is what moves them. The Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts reports net state revenue by month of collection and updates the report monthly, with sales taxes, the franchise tax, motor-vehicle taxes and oil and gas production taxes as the largest sources. The Texas Workforce Commission publishes the state's monthly employment figures with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose seasonally adjusted Texas unemployment rate is printed first as preliminary and revised later, so a contract's rules have to say which print counts. AAA publishes a Texas average gasoline price every day. The budget runs on a two-year cycle: at the start of each regular session the Comptroller submits the Biennial Revenue Estimate, which caps what the Legislature can appropriate, and the Legislative Budget Board publishes the budget adopted for 2026-27. Each of those releases is the kind of event that reprices a contract built on it.
Why Texas Economy Prediction Markets
An economic contract asks one checkable question, whether a named figure lands above or below a stated line by a stated date, and pays a fixed amount if so. Its price is the share of that amount traders are paying, which reads as an implied probability, and it moves whenever new information arrives rather than on a survey's schedule. Settlement is on the publisher's own release, not on a forecast or a headline, so a contract's rules name the agency, the series and the print that counts. Where two exchanges price the same question, each figure is shown under its own venue rather than averaged. None of it is a recommendation: the site reports what a market implies about Texas and takes no side on the figure or the venue.
Sources 8 · as the record cites them
- Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Monthly State Revenue Watch — comptroller.texas.gov · primary ·
- Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, Biennial Revenue Estimate — comptroller.texas.gov · primary ·
- Legislative Budget Board, state budget 2026-27 — lbb.texas.gov · official ·
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Texas unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted (LASST480000000000003) — data.bls.gov · primary ·
- U.S. Census Bureau, state FIPS codes (48 is Texas) — www2.census.gov · primary ·
- Texas Workforce Commission, Texas Labor Market Information — texaslmi.com · official ·
- AAA Gas Prices, Texas average — gasprices.aaa.com · official ·
- Prediction Genius, Texas governor party market — predictiongenius.io · contract ·
Questions readers ask
How do economic prediction markets work?
A contract asks whether a published number will land above or below a stated line by a stated date, such as whether Texas's unemployment rate for a given month prints above a threshold, and pays a fixed amount if it does. Its price is the share of that amount traders are paying, so it reads as the market's implied probability.
Which Texas economic numbers can have prediction markets?
The ones a public body or a named publisher puts out on a schedule: the Texas Comptroller's monthly state revenue figures and two-year revenue estimate, the Texas unemployment rate the Texas Workforce Commission and the Bureau of Labor Statistics release monthly, the budget the Legislature adopts each biennium, and AAA's daily Texas fuel average. A national figure with no Texas line does not.
How do Texas economy markets settle?
On a specific release, as published, never on a forecast or a news report. Each contract's rules name the publisher and the date: a contract on Texas state revenue would point at the Comptroller's report and one on the jobless rate at the Bureau of Labor Statistics figure for Texas, and the rules also say whether the first print or a later revision counts.
Where can I trade Texas economy markets?
On the exchange that lists the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket price the Texas contracts on this site, and an economy contract's page would name the exchange or exchanges behind it and show each venue's figure separately. Texas Predictions is not an exchange and takes no trades.
Are economic prediction markets legal in Texas?
The legal status page on this site reports what Texas statutes, regulators and courts have said about prediction-market exchanges as of a stated date, and it draws no conclusion the record does not carry; this section does not settle the question on its own. Nothing on Texas Predictions is legal or financial advice.