Texas Gas Price Predictions & Odds

How Texas Gas Price Markets Settle

Every daily contract here settles on one number: AAA's average price for a gallon of regular gasoline across Texas on the date the contract names, as AAA posts it on its Texas page at gasprices.aaa.com. Kalshi lists the series under its AAAGAS contract terms, which name AAA as the source agency and take the figure as AAA documents it at expiration. A revision AAA makes after expiration does not change the result, and if AAA publishes nothing for the day, the terms fall back to the last day it did publish.

Each rung asks whether that average is strictly greater than a stated price, so a reading that lands exactly on a rung resolves No. The figure is a statewide average across stations, not the price at any one pump, and AAA's own Texas page shows county averages spread on both sides of it.

How to Read the Texas Gas Price Board

The board shows the next day's contract as a ladder. Each rung is a price, and its odds are the market's chance that AAA's Texas average for that day finishes above it. The rungs sit half a cent apart, so the odds fall as the prices climb: a rung low on the ladder is priced near certainty, and one near the top is a long shot.

The market line is the price where the odds cross an even chance, the market's middle estimate for the day's figure. Next to the board, the last settled day shows where AAA's average actually landed on the most recent date that has resolved. The distance between the market line and the last settled figure is the overnight move traders are pricing. Trading on a day's contract closes at 11:59 p.m. Eastern the night before that day, which is 10:59 p.m. Central.

What Moves Texas Gas Prices

Crude oil is the largest single piece of the pump price, according to EIA, and it moves every state together. What sets Texas apart is supply. The state sits in EIA's PADD 3, the Gulf Coast district, which EIA describes as an area with significant refining capacity, and refined product from the district moves by pipeline to other parts of the country. EIA also notes that refinery shutdowns, including those when hurricanes hit, and pipeline disruptions push prices up, so a Gulf storm or a refinery outage is the kind of event that reprices a Texas board within a day.

The state tax is not a moving part: Texas levies a flat twenty cents on each gallon of gasoline under Tax Code section 162.102, the rate the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts listed on October 13, 2026, and the statute sets a fixed amount rather than one that adjusts each year.

Blend rules and the calendar matter more. EPA requires reformulated gasoline in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria and Dallas-Fort Worth ozone areas, and a Texas summer rule limits gasoline vapor pressure from May 1 to October 1 in the 95 counties EPA lists as East Texas. The federal summer volatility season runs from June 1 to September 15 at retail, and EIA notes that gasoline demand usually rises in summer, so the dates each blend switches are fixed points a board can price ahead of time.

Texas Gas Price History

The chart under the board plots AAA's settled Texas average for each day a contract has resolved. The record starts with the contract for August 24, 2026, the first date in Kalshi's daily Texas series, and gains one point for every day that settles after it. The seven-day and thirty-day windows roll forward with the calendar, so the change they show is always measured back from the latest settled day, while the full view keeps every point since August 24, 2026.

Monthly and Year-Long Texas Gas Price Markets

Texas also has longer boards on the same AAA figure. The monthly contract asks about a single date, the last day of the month: whether AAA's Texas average on that day lands above each price. The year-long pair reads every daily figure from the day the contract lists through December 31. The year-high contract resolves Yes once AAA's Texas average goes strictly above a rung's price on any day in the year, and the year-low contract once it falls strictly below one. Kalshi lists that pair under its AAAGASMINMAX terms, and because a rung resolves the first time its price is crossed, part of a year-long ladder can be decided months before December 31. Whether exchanges may offer these contracts to Texans is a separate question, covered on the legal status page.