Texas politics prediction markets from the state’s side: the Senate seat, the governor’s office and the House districts Texans decide, priced as contracts by the exchanges. Each settles on the official result, never a projection.
| Market | Quoted sides | Price | 24h | Other side | Volume | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas 15th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Kalshi · 2 venues | Democratic Party 75%No 26% | 75%-300 | — | No 26%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $2.3M$227 24h | No date servedvote |
| Texas 24th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Republican Party 89%No 12% | 89%-809 | down 1 points over 24h | No 12%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $85K$109 24h | No date servedvote |
| Texas 28th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Kalshi · 2 venues | Democratic Party 89%No 12% | 89%-809 | — | No 12%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $202K$3 24h | No date servedvote |
| Texas 21st District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Republican Party 94%No 7% | 94%-1567 | — | No 7%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $74Kno 24h volume served | No date servedvote |
By volume: the largest as cards, the rest as rows · Price is the leading side’s quote; the other side is its own quote, never 1 − price · vote dates come from each page’s settlement text — Genius serves no resolve date for these
Marist's registered-voter survey of September 23, 2026 has Hinojosa 49% to Abbott 46%, but Kalshi prices a Republican winner at 73%, because two likely-voter polls the same week had Abbott ahead and 68% of Marist's own respondents expect him to win.
Texas Predictions staff ·
The deepest contracts on the Texas board ask one question about one office: which party’s nominee wins it. The Senate contract, listed on Kalshi and Polymarket, pays on the winning party in the November 3, 2026 election for the state’s Class 2 seat in the United States Senate; the governor’s contract asks the same of the office Greg Abbott has held since January 20, 2015. Both have pages here, the Senate race and the governor’s race, and every House district carries a contract of the same shape, the 15th District and the 32nd District written up first.
Beside them sit ladders: a margin-of-victory ladder that prices how wide the Senate result will be, band by band, and a voter-turnout ladder that prices how many Texans will vote in it, each rung its own contract at its own line. Prices sit on the pages, dated; this page carries none.
The calendar moves them first. The Texas Secretary of State sets October 5, 2026 as the last day to register for the November 3 election, early voting runs from October 19 to October 30, and an application for a ballot by mail must be received by October 23; the early-voting turnout the state reports through that window is the first hard number before the count. The March 3, 2026 primary and the May 26, 2026 runoff fixed the nominees, and a replacement after that carries a contract with the party, not the person.
The map moves the House contracts. The districts vote in 2026 under PlanC2333, the congressional plan the 89th Legislature enacted in its second called session, while the members elected under the previous plan serve until January 2027, so each contract is priced on lines its sitting member never ran on. Otherwise a fundraising report, a forecaster’s rating or a poll reprices a race, and a withdrawal does it in an afternoon.
A poll asks a sample whom it favors; a contract makes traders pay for a result, and that price reads as the probability the market implies, shown here as a percentage and never in cents. Where Kalshi and Polymarket both list a question the site shows each price as that exchange’s own; where one lists it, the page says so. Settlement is fixed in advance: the Senate contract settles once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have called the race for the same candidate, or on the official certification if they have not, and Kalshi’s governor and House contracts settle on the inauguration or the oath of office rather than on election night. A projection is never a result here. The races and their dates are on the elections page; what Texas law says about each exchange is on the legal status page.
A contract pays a fixed amount if one outcome happens, such as the Republican nominee winning the 2026 Texas Senate race, and nothing if it does not, so its price reads as the probability traders assign to that outcome, shown on this site as a percentage. Kalshi and Polymarket list the Texas contracts and match buyers with sellers; the site takes no trades.
The November 3, 2026 races for the state’s Class 2 seat in the United States Senate and for Governor of Texas, and each of the state’s districts in the United States House, are priced as contracts on the winning party; the Senate race also carries margin-of-victory and voter-turnout ladders.
On the official result or on a rule the contract names in advance: the Senate contract settles once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, or on the official certification if they have not, and Kalshi’s governor and House contracts settle on the inauguration or the swearing-in that follows the November 3, 2026 election.
On the exchanges that list each contract, named on its page. On September 23, 2026 Kalshi and Polymarket both listed the Texas Senate contract and the House contracts for the 15th and 32nd districts, while Kalshi alone listed the standalone governor contract; Texas Predictions itself takes no trades.
The site’s legal status page carries that answer as of a stated review date: what Texas law, the state’s regulators and its courts have said about each exchange, with no conclusion drawn where the record is silent. Nothing on this politics page is legal advice.