Texas Politician Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
A page for each Texan a prediction market prices: officeholders and candidates in the state's races. Each states the office or candidacy from the public record and the contracts that involve the person.
People
No person has a page on this site yet.
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A Marist Poll Put Hinojosa Ahead of Abbott, and the Market Treats It as One Poll Among Three
Marist's registered-voter survey of September 23, 2026 has Hinojosa 49% to Abbott 46%, but Kalshi prices a Republican winner at 73%, because two likely-voter polls the same week had Abbott ahead and 68% of Marist's own respondents expect him to win.
- TXAnalysisAnalysis
Three Texas Senate Polls in Three Days Put Talarico Ahead, and the Market Prices the Lead but Not the Size
Marist has Talarico up six, Texas Southern up one and NBC5 up three, and as of September 23, 2026 the exchanges price the Democratic contract at 59% and 63%, because a lead that small in every poll buys the direction, not the margin.
- TXAnalysisAnalysis
The AL West Is Tied, and the Market Gives Houston Two-Thirds Because It Already Won the Season Series
Houston and Texas are level at 78-79 with five games left, yet Kalshi and Polymarket price the Astros near 68% and the Rangers near 34% as of September 23, 2026, because the 9-4 season series means a tie is a Houston title.
What the Texas People Index Holds
No person page is published yet, so this index opens with its rule. A Texan gets a page when two things hold: a Texas contract on this site names them or prices a race they are in, and their office or ballot line can be read from an official record, meaning Wikidata checked against the office's own site, the Clerk of the House's member list or the candidate filings at the Texas Secretary of State and the Federal Election Commission. The register is offices, not markets: the Governor of Texas, the U.S. Senate seat on the state's 2026 ballot, the members Texas sends to the U.S. House from its 38 districts, and any legislator or city official a contract is written about. The Texas race contracts priced so far settle on the party of the winner rather than on a named candidate, and a candidate's page says so. Until the first page is published, the Texas governor market page and the Texas Senate market page carry the statewide contracts and the elections ballot lists the races.
What Changes the Texas People Index
A person is added when a qualifying contract appears and the office claim can be sourced, never from a display label alone, because an exchange can print a candidate's name on a contract that settles on a party. An existing page changes on dated events: the November 3, 2026 general election, with early voting from October 19 to October 30, 2026, a certified result, a resignation, an appointment or a new contract naming the person. The office line is rechecked every 30 days against Wikidata and the office's own record, and a projection is never written up as a result. A national contract about a Texan appears on the person's page as a named market linking to Prediction Genius, never as a Texas market page.
Why Texas Politician Prediction Markets
A contract on a race pays a fixed amount on the outcome the exchange's rules name, so its price is a probability, updated as news arrives rather than on a pollster's schedule. A person page does not quote that price: it carries what the contract asks, what it settles on and which exchange lists it; the market page carries the live figure, each venue's number under its own name. For the Texas races here, settlement means the party of the winner, called by the reporting each exchange's rules accept or taken from the official result, and sworn in where a contract's rules say so. Nothing here grades a politician or takes a side: the record states the office, the race and the contract, and the market the rest.
Questions readers ask
How do prediction markets on politicians work?
A contract names an outcome about a race or an office, such as which party wins the Texas governor's race on November 3, 2026, and pays a fixed amount if it happens. Its price is the share of that payout traders are paying, so it reads as an implied probability, and it settles on the result the exchange's rules name, not on a poll or a projection.
Which Texas politicians have prediction markets?
The candidates and officeholders in the races Texas contracts price: in 2026 the Governor of Texas, the Senate seat on the state's ballot and the state's seats in the U.S. House, all priced by party rather than by name. A person appears here once a contract involves them and an official record such as Wikidata, the Clerk of the House or the Texas Secretary of State confirms their office.
Do Texas election contracts settle on the candidate or the party?
The party. Every Texas race contract priced on this site resolves on the party of the winner, as each exchange's rules state, and a candidate's name on a contract is a label; on the Senate contract a replacement nominee before Election Day carries it with the party. The trigger is the November 3, 2026 result, called by the reporting each exchange's rules accept or taken from the official result.
Where can I trade markets on Texas politicians?
On the exchange that lists the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket both price the Texas race contracts on this site, and each market page names the venue behind every figure it shows. Texas Predictions is not an exchange, runs no market and takes no trades.
Are prediction markets on politicians legal in Texas?
The legal status page answers that from the record: it reports what Texas statutes, regulators and courts have said about prediction-market exchanges as of a stated date and draws no conclusion beyond it. This index does not decide the question, and nothing on Texas Predictions is legal advice.