Texas Weather Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
Daily temperature markets for Texas cities, each ladder settling on one named airport station. The hub shows the nearest observation days for every city; each city page carries the full board and its rules.
Austin
66 open contracts · $48.4K traded · 3 observation daysCity board →- ≤85°0%—
- 86–87°0%—
- 88–89°0%—
- 90–91°0%—
- 92–93°0%—
- 94–95°0%—
- 96–97°0%—
- 98–99°100%—
- 100–101°0%—
- 102–103°0%—
- ≥104°0%—
- ≤65°7%+1329
- 66–67°4%+2400
- 68–69°4%+2400
- 70–71°7%+1329
- 72–73°3%+3233
- 74–75°97%-3233
- 76–77°0%—
- 78–79°0%—
- 80–81°0%—
- 82–83°0%—
- ≥84°0%—
- ≤85°0%—
- 86–87°1%+9900
- 88–89°1%+9900
- 90–91°5%+1900
- 92–93°20%+400
- 94–95°34%+194
- 96–97°36%+178
- 98–99°9%+1011
- 100–101°1%+9900
- 102–103°0%—
- ≥104°0%—
- ≤69°—
- 70–71°—
- 72–73°—
- 74–75°—
- 76–77°46%+117
- 78–79°—
- 80–81°—
- 82–83°9%+1011
- 84–85°9%+1011
- 86–87°8%+1150
- ≥88°—
A ladder reads left to right from the low tail to the high tail — coldest to hottest, driest to wettest — one contract per cell; the shaded cell is the favourite and the bar under each price is its share. A dash is a band with no quote in the snapshot. End bands are the open-ended contracts the exchange lists — “85° or lower” prints as ≤85°.
Dallas
66 open contracts · $48.9K traded · 3 observation daysCity board →- ≤85°0%—
- 86–87°0%—
- 88–89°0%—
- 90–91°0%—
- 92–93°0%—
- 94–95°100%—
- 96–97°0%—
- 98–99°0%—
- 100–101°0%—
- 102–103°0%—
- ≥104°0%—
- ≤67°1%+9900
- 68–69°6%+1567
- 70–71°3%+3233
- 72–73°6%+1567
- 74–75°6%+1567
- 76–77°98%-4900
- 78–79°0%—
- 80–81°0%—
- 82–83°0%—
- 84–85°0%—
- ≥86°0%—
- ≤81°0%—
- 82–83°0%—
- 84–85°1%+9900
- 86–87°1%+9900
- 88–89°5%+1900
- 90–91°30%+233
- 92–93°39%+156
- 94–95°25%+300
- 96–97°4%+2400
- 98–99°1%+9900
- ≥100°0%—
- ≤67°10%+900
- 68–69°8%+1150
- 70–71°9%+1011
- 72–73°—
- 74–75°12%+733
- 76–77°4%+2400
- 78–79°49%+104
- 80–81°45%+122
- 82–83°3%+3233
- 84–85°1%+9900
- ≥86°—
A ladder reads left to right from the low tail to the high tail — coldest to hottest, driest to wettest — one contract per cell; the shaded cell is the favourite and the bar under each price is its share. A dash is a band with no quote in the snapshot. End bands are the open-ended contracts the exchange lists — “85° or lower” prints as ≤85°.
Houston
66 open contracts · $33.0K traded · 3 observation daysCity board →- ≤81°0%—
- 82–83°0%—
- 84–85°0%—
- 86–87°0%—
- 88–89°0%—
- 90–91°100%—
- 92–93°0%—
- 94–95°0%—
- 96–97°0%—
- 98–99°0%—
- ≥100°0%—
- ≤69°4%+2400
- 70–71°4%+2400
- 72–73°5%+1900
- 74–75°3%+3233
- 76–77°94%-1567
- 78–79°0%—
- 80–81°0%—
- 82–83°0%—
- 84–85°0%—
- 86–87°0%—
- ≥88°0%—
- ≤81°0%—
- 82–83°0%—
- 84–85°0%—
- 86–87°2%+4900
- 88–89°13%+669
- 90–91°60%-150
- 92–93°26%+285
- 94–95°1%+9900
- 96–97°0%—
- 98–99°0%—
- ≥100°0%—
- ≤71°—
- 72–73°5%+1900
- 74–75°—
- 76–77°5%+1900
- 78–79°40%+150
- 80–81°32%+212
- 82–83°19%+426
- 84–85°10%+900
- 86–87°7%+1329
- 88–89°7%+1329
- ≥90°7%+1329
A ladder reads left to right from the low tail to the high tail — coldest to hottest, driest to wettest — one contract per cell; the shaded cell is the favourite and the bar under each price is its share. A dash is a band with no quote in the snapshot. End bands are the open-ended contracts the exchange lists — “81° or lower” prints as ≤81°.
San Antonio
0 open contractsCity board →No open San Antonio weather contracts in the last snapshot. The board fills from the next read. Contracts open a few days ahead of each observation day, so an empty board usually means the read is older than the ladder it would show.
Top Texas Weather Markets
Texas weather trades as temperature ladders: for each observation day a venue lists one ladder for the day's high and one for the day's low, and each two-degree band on a ladder is a yes-or-no contract of its own. Three cities carried live ladders on September 23, 2026. Austin settles on the NOAA reading at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, Dallas at Love Field and Houston at William P. Hobby Airport; San Antonio is on the list but had no contract open that day. A ladder's range is set when the venue opens the event, two days ahead for the September 24 ladders, and a settled day leaves the board, so what the hub shows is always the days still to be measured. No rainfall ladder was listed for any Texas city on that date. The city pages carry every open period; this hub shows each city's nearest two.
What Moves Texas Weather Markets
The catalysts are meteorological and short. A ladder opens about two days before its observation day, so it reprices as forecasts firm up and then as the day's hourly readings arrive from the station. The venue's rules make NOAA's hourly table the resolution source, so a mid-afternoon reading that crosses a band boundary settles the argument in a way a forecast never does, and a late correction still counts until the first reading of the next day or 11:59 PM Eastern the day after. The other structural mover is the station itself. Each contract reads the one station its rules name, whatever other thermometer the city has, and a reader who follows the wrong one will misread every ladder: the Dallas contract is Love Field's day, not the region's, and the Houston contract is Hobby's.
Why Texas Weather Prediction Markets
A forecast gives a single number; a ladder gives a price for every two-degree outcome, and because each band settles yes or no on a published government reading, the prices read as the market's distribution for the day. The settlement source is public: the same NOAA station page the rules cite is open to anyone, in whole degrees Fahrenheit, with revisions counted until the deadline and a written fallback if the page is empty. That makes a Texas weather contract one of the cleanest things on the site to check after the fact. This site never links a weather cell to a venue and never computes a favourite of its own; it prints the venue's book, names the book when one venue prices the whole ladder, and stamps the time it last read it. Whether a venue may serve a Texas reader is a question for the legal status page, which reports the record and draws no conclusion.
Questions readers ask
How do Texas weather prediction markets work?
Each observation day gets a ladder of two-degree temperature bands, and every band is a yes-or-no contract that pays if the day's high or low, as recorded by NOAA at the named airport station such as Love Field, lands inside it.
Which Texas cities have weather prediction markets?
Austin, Dallas and Houston had live daily high and low ladders on September 23, 2026, and San Antonio is on the list with no contract open that day.
How do Texas weather markets settle?
On NOAA's hourly readings at one named station per city, Austin-Bergstrom, Love Field or Hobby, in whole degrees Fahrenheit, at the first reading of the next day or 11:59 PM Eastern the day after, whichever comes first.
Where can I trade Texas weather markets?
On the venue named on each ladder; on September 23, 2026 that was Polymarket for every Texas ladder. This site shows the book and links no cell to it.
Are weather prediction markets legal in Texas?
Standing is documented on the Texas legal status page, which states what the primary record shows as of its review date and draws no conclusion; weather contracts are not treated separately there.