Austin Weather Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds

The station that settles an Austin contract

An Austin temperature contract does not settle on the city. Each ladder's rules name one instrument: the highest, or lowest, temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport station, read in whole degrees Fahrenheit from the hourly table the National Weather Service publishes for station KAUS. The station sits in Travis County at roughly 148 meters of elevation, and the county line is not the point; the contract pays on that one thermometer's readings through the observation day. The band that contains the airport number is the band that pays, and nothing else is consulted.

That is why the station name is the first thing to read on any Austin ladder. A downtown thermometer, a backyard sensor or a television forecast is a different measurement from the one the contract will use, and a reader who follows one of those will misjudge where the day lands.

How the Austin ladders are built

Polymarket lists two ladders for each Austin observation day, one for the day's high and one for the day's low, and on September 23, 2026 it was the only book quoting them. Each ladder runs in two-degree steps with an open band at either end. The high ladder for September 24, 2026 ran from 89°F or below up to 108°F or higher, with nine two-degree bands between; the low ladder for the same day ran from 67°F or below to 86°F or higher. A band is a yes-or-no contract of its own, so the prices along a ladder read as the market's spread of outcomes for that one reading, and the site marks the highest-priced band as the favourite without adding the bands up or turning them into a forecast.

The venue set those ranges when it opened the events on September 22, 2026, two days before the observation date. A ladder's range therefore says what the venue expected of the day when it listed it, and the prices inside the range are where the argument happens as the forecast firms up and the readings arrive.

When an Austin contract settles

The rules fix the clock as well as the thermometer. A ladder resolves once the first data point for the following date appears on the NOAA station page, or at 11:59 PM Eastern on the day after the observation date, whichever comes first. Revisions NOAA posts before that moment count; revisions after it do not. If the NOAA page has no data for the observation date by that Eastern deadline, the venue turns to the Weather Underground daily observations table, and if that has nothing either, the whole ladder resolves to its lowest bracket. The station keeps Central time and the deadline is written in Eastern time, so the window closes an hour earlier on an Austin clock than the wording suggests.

What the Austin board does not carry

There is no rainfall ladder for Austin, and on September 23, 2026 there was no contract on the city for anything but the daily high and low. A day that has already been measured drops off the board once its contracts settle, so the board is always the observation days still to come, never a record of past ones. No cell on this page links to a venue; a ladder names the book that prices it, and a price is the site's reading of that book at the time stamped on the page. Standing questions about the venue belong on the legal status page, and the Texas weather hub lists the other cities the site follows.