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Houston Weather Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds

Houston's daily high and low temperature ladders, band by band, for the observation days a venue has listed. The reading that pays is taken at Hobby Airport, so read the station before the number.

66open contracts
$33.5Ktraded
3observation days
Polymarketsingle venue
Last Updated: Sep 29, 2026, 7:30 PM CDTReal Time Odds on Prediction Genius

The board

6 ladders · Today · Tomorrow · Thursday, Oct 1
Today
Daily high °FFavourite 90–91° at 100%—$22.8K traded · Polymarket
  1. ≤81°0%—
  2. 82–83°0%—
  3. 84–85°0%—
  4. 86–87°0%—
  5. 88–89°0%—
  6. 90–91°100%—
  7. 92–93°0%—
  8. 94–95°0%—
  9. 96–97°0%—
  10. 98–99°0%—
  11. ≥100°0%—
Daily low °FFavourite 76–77° at 95%-1900$1.5K traded · Polymarket
  1. ≤69°4%+2400
  2. 70–71°4%+2400
  3. 72–73°5%+1900
  4. 74–75°3%+3233
  5. 76–77°95%-1900
  6. 78–79°0%—
  7. 80–81°0%—
  8. 82–83°0%—
  9. 84–85°0%—
  10. 86–87°0%—
  11. ≥88°0%—
Tomorrow
Daily high °FFavourite 90–91° at 59%-144$7.8K traded · Polymarket
  1. ≤81°0%—
  2. 82–83°0%—
  3. 84–85°0%—
  4. 86–87°2%+4900
  5. 88–89°9%+1011
  6. 90–91°59%-144
  7. 92–93°31%+223
  8. 94–95°1%+9900
  9. 96–97°0%—
  10. 98–99°0%—
  11. ≥100°0%—
Daily low °FFavourite 78–79° at 40%+150$608 traded · Polymarket
  1. ≤71°—
  2. 72–73°5%+1900
  3. 74–75°—
  4. 76–77°5%+1900
  5. 78–79°40%+150
  6. 80–81°32%+212
  7. 82–83°19%+426
  8. 84–85°10%+900
  9. 86–87°7%+1329
  10. 88–89°7%+1329
  11. ≥90°7%+1329
Daily high °FFavourite 90–91° at 42%+138$637 traded · Polymarket
  1. ≤81°1%+9900
  2. 82–83°2%+4900
  3. 84–85°4%+2400
  4. 86–87°7%+1329
  5. 88–89°21%+376
  6. 90–91°42%+138
  7. 92–93°30%+233
  8. 94–95°9%+1011
  9. 96–97°5%+1900
  10. 98–99°0%—
  11. ≥100°0%—
Daily low °FFavourite 80–81° at 54%-117$152 traded · Polymarket
  1. ≤73°4%+2400
  2. 74–75°—
  3. 76–77°—
  4. 78–79°—
  5. 80–81°54%-117
  6. 82–83°—
  7. 84–85°—
  8. 86–87°—
  9. 88–89°—
  10. 90–91°—
  11. ≥92°—

A ladder reads left to right from the low tail to the high tail — coldest to hottest, driest to wettest — one contract per cell; the shaded cell is the favourite and the bar under each price is its share. A dash is a band with no quote in the snapshot. End bands are the open-ended contracts the exchange lists — “81° or lower” prints as ≤81°.

Hobby Airport, not the city

The rules of every Houston ladder name a single instrument: the highest or lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport station, KHOU in the National Weather Service's list, in whole degrees Fahrenheit. Hobby is in Harris County at about 14 meters of elevation, close to sea level, and the contract reads the Temp column of NOAA's hourly table for that site across the day. Houston is a large city with many thermometers, and none of the others count; a reader who wants to know how a contract will pay looks up KHOU and nothing else.

Bands and the favourite on a Houston ladder

Houston ladders are built in two-degree steps with an open band at each end. For September 24, 2026 the high ladder ran from 87°F or below to 106°F or higher and the low ladder from 71°F or below to 90°F or higher, eleven bands each. Every band is its own yes-or-no contract, priced separately, and the page marks the band with the highest price as the favourite. That marker is a reading of the venue's order book, not the site's view of the weather: the site does not add the bands, average them or reconcile them with a forecast. On September 23, 2026 Polymarket was the one book quoting Houston, so each ladder carries that name, and no cell on the page is a link.

Settlement timing for a Houston contract

A Houston contract resolves once NOAA publishes the first data point for the date after the observation date, or at 11:59 PM Eastern on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Revisions to the day's readings count until that moment and not after. If the NOAA page carries no data for the observation date by the Eastern deadline, the Weather Underground daily observations table is the fallback source, and if there is no data there either the ladder resolves to its lowest bracket. Because the station keeps Central time and the rules are written in Eastern, the settlement window closes earlier in the evening than a Houston reader may expect.

What is not on the Houston board

Only temperature trades for Houston. The Houston leaf carried no rainfall ladder on September 23, 2026, and the board covers the observation days the venue had opened, which for September 24 it did on September 22, two days ahead. Settled days leave the board. Prices here are the site's last reading of the venue's book, stamped with the time of that reading; the venue's page, not this one, is where a contract is traded, and this page does not link to it. The Texas weather hub sets Houston beside Austin, Dallas and San Antonio, and the legal status page holds what the record shows about the venues that price these ladders.

Questions readers ask

Which station settles a Houston temperature market?

William P. Hobby Airport, NWS station KHOU. Both the daily high and the daily low rules read on September 23, 2026 name NOAA's hourly readings at that station in whole degrees Fahrenheit.

How many bands are on a Houston temperature ladder?

Eleven on September 24, 2026: nine two-degree bands plus an open band at each end, such as 87°F or below and 106°F or higher on the high ladder.

What time does a Houston contract stop counting revisions?

At the first NOAA data point for the following date or 11:59 PM Eastern on the day after the observation date, whichever comes first; NOAA revisions posted before then count.

Is there a Houston rainfall market?

No. On September 23, 2026 the Houston board listed daily high and daily low temperature ladders only.